Europeum Institute for European Policy based in Prague just published my analysis of the European politics post-elections. You can access it here. Here are the main points:
- There are signals of increased political confrontation in the European political arena. The new European Commission has not yet taken office and already has two big political problems awaiting it: how to deal with the democratisation of the Union and how to address the Euroskeptic support for the Commission in the eyes of the pro-European forces.
- I call them “the original sins” of the new Commission, but in fact they may mean that if the Juncker Commission was a political one, the von der Leyen Commission might be the most political commission in the history of the institution.
The first of the original sins is the issue of Spitzenkandidaten process. Criticized as unrealistic and unnecessary before the elections, is now revered among those who care for the European democracy. Some claim the process is dead; I’d argue it will bounce back stronger during the next cycle. The reason being – it is an original sin of the von der Leyen European Commission.
The second original sin comes from the fact that the new Commission President dwells on the support of the Euro-sceptics and Euro-realists and failed to gain meaningful levels of trust of the pro-European majority in the House of the People, as the European Parliament is called. The pro-European President of the Commission needs to prove herself to the pro-European parliamentarians in the months and years to come.
Real Instituto Elcano in Madrid just published my analysis about the new European Parliament. This is one of a few recent publications from me about the current European political developments.
Real Instituto Elcano in Madrid just published a paper I authored entitled Poland in Europe: disappointment or merely hiccup? (Madrid 2019).
Abstract: What is Poland’s position in the EU in the context of the political and economic developments under the Law and Justice government? Since 2015 the one-party government in Poland has engaged in a policy of a radical change. A set of various reforms have been implemented, some of them highly controversial, such as the reform process in the judiciary. The judicial reforms –or ‘take over’– put the Warsaw government on a collision course with the EU institutions over the rule of law. This paper analyses three aspects of the Polish-EU relationship: (1) the state of the rule of law; (2) the economic challenges; and (3) the political position of Poland among EU member states.
Poland: what happened to the golden child of European integration? To the country that economically grew and developed like no other in the past 20 years, invested in infrastructure and kept its public finances in order? To the country that cut unemployment from 20% to single digits in a decade? To the country that in recent years gave Europe Presidents of the European Parliament, European Council and Council of Ministers? To the country that welcomed millions of visitors in the month-long party of the UEFA championships in 2012? To the country that championed EU values and defended, promoted and helped define them? And to the country where WWII began and Communism ended?
Excerpt (2): Poland first.
Global trends have tended to somehow gravitate around this country in the middle of the Old Continent. The First World War violently gave birth to a number of new independent states. The largest was Poland, a complex nation with ethnic minorities comprising 32% of the population. The Second World War broke out in Poland while communism in Europe ended with the emergence of Solidarność and the Round Table negotiations in 1989. Poland was the most important country in the process of NATO’s Eastern enlargement. It was a crucial partner in the EU’s 2004 ‘Big Bang’ enlargement.It was the first victim of the new wave of populisms that came to power in Europe:before the Brexit vote and Italy’s 2018 elections, Poland had become a victim to the new Eurosceptic populism. Will it be the first to leave it behind too?