Tectonic changes in US politics

There are mid-elections coming up in the US this Tuesday. Democrats are expected to take over the control over the House of Representatives, but lose seats in the Senate. This is not, however, focus of my today’s post.

The focus of my post is to detect the tectonic shifts in US elections between 1990 and 2010 as regards how many seats in the House each state has. In the US the seats are reallocated every 10 years, following the census. Last time round the House mandates have been redistributed, again, to reflect the changes in demographics between states. Who is the winner and who is the loser in the process? The biggest “gainers” are Texas (+6 mandates, 1990-2010), Florida (+4) and Georgia (+3), whereas the biggest “losers” are New York (-4 mandates), Ohio (-3) and Pennsylvania (-3).

When I saw this I thought: how strange, the three states that got new mandates have a recent history (2016) of voting Republican in US Presidential elections. Mind you, seats in the House are identical (+2 Senators per state) to the number of electors, who chose the US President. Texas votes for Republican candidates for US Presidency since 1980 every time. Florida is more a flip-flopper and usually goes with the winner, voting for a Republican in 2016, Democrat in 2008 and 2012, Republican in 2004 and 2000. Georgia votes Republicans continuously since 1996. In 2016 all three voted Trump.

New York votes Democrats since 1988 every time, Ohio bets on the winner since 1964 (hence, a flip-flopper) and Pennsylvania is more consistently voting for Democrats, having voted for Trump in 2016 more as an exception than the rule. Between 1992 until 2012 PA state voted for Democratic candidates for Presidency.

Hence the result: three “winners” are 2 Republican states (TX, GA) and a flip-flopper Florida. Three “losers” are 2 Democratic states (NY, PA) and a flip-flopper Ohio.

The conclusion is the following: the tectonic shifts in US demography has been favourable for the Republicans. The only viable strategy in the future for the Democratic party is to take the ball to the states with a growing population: Florida and Georgia is where the focus should be. Texas is the obvious test ground already in 2018: the senatorial clash between Ted Cruz and Beto O’Rourke is an outlook for the future: does the “old” Texas still hold, or the dreams of electing O’Rourke is just a wishful thinking of coastal liberal opinion providers? The answer shall come shortly.

#US #Elections #USElections #MidTerm2018 #USvotes2018 #UnitedStates

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